Population Density, Water Supply, and Dengue Fever Risk in Vietnam
Author Information
Author(s): Schmidt Wolf-Peter, Suzuki Motoi, Dinh Thiem Vu, White Richard G., Tsuzuki Ataru, Yoshida Lay-Myint, Yanai Hideki, Haque Ubydul, Huu Tho Le, Anh Dang Duc, Ariyoshi Koya
Primary Institution: Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University
Hypothesis
How do human population density and water supply affect the risk of dengue fever outbreaks?
Conclusion
Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities.
Supporting Evidence
- The study analyzed data from 75,000 geo-referenced households during two dengue epidemics.
- A narrow range of critical human population densities was identified as most prone to dengue outbreaks.
- Rural areas showed a higher risk of dengue due to lack of piped water supply.
Takeaway
People living in rural areas without tap water are more likely to get dengue fever because mosquitoes breed in water containers.
Methodology
An individual-level cohort study was conducted on 75,000 households in Vietnam during two dengue epidemics, analyzing hospital admissions and applying mathematical models.
Potential Biases
Hospital admissions may be biased towards more severe cases and wealthier groups living closer to hospitals.
Limitations
The study only looked at severe cases of dengue in hospitalized patients and assumed all taps were functional.
Participant Demographics
The study included approximately 350,000 residents from rural and urban communes in Kanh Hoa Province, Vietnam.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% CI
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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