Population Density, Water Supply, and the Risk of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: Cohort Study and Spatial Analysis
2011

Population Density, Water Supply, and Dengue Fever Risk in Vietnam

Sample size: 75000 publication Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Schmidt Wolf-Peter, Suzuki Motoi, Dinh Thiem Vu, White Richard G., Tsuzuki Ataru, Yoshida Lay-Myint, Yanai Hideki, Haque Ubydul, Huu Tho Le, Anh Dang Duc, Ariyoshi Koya

Primary Institution: Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University

Hypothesis

How do human population density and water supply affect the risk of dengue fever outbreaks?

Conclusion

Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities.

Supporting Evidence

  • The study analyzed data from 75,000 geo-referenced households during two dengue epidemics.
  • A narrow range of critical human population densities was identified as most prone to dengue outbreaks.
  • Rural areas showed a higher risk of dengue due to lack of piped water supply.

Takeaway

People living in rural areas without tap water are more likely to get dengue fever because mosquitoes breed in water containers.

Methodology

An individual-level cohort study was conducted on 75,000 households in Vietnam during two dengue epidemics, analyzing hospital admissions and applying mathematical models.

Potential Biases

Hospital admissions may be biased towards more severe cases and wealthier groups living closer to hospitals.

Limitations

The study only looked at severe cases of dengue in hospitalized patients and assumed all taps were functional.

Participant Demographics

The study included approximately 350,000 residents from rural and urban communes in Kanh Hoa Province, Vietnam.

Statistical Information

Confidence Interval

95% CI

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pmed.1001082

Want to read the original?

Access the complete publication on the publisher's website

View Original Publication