Temperature and Malaria Trends in Highland East Africa
Author Information
Author(s): David I. Stern, Peter W. Gething, Caroline W. Kabaria, William H. Temperley, Abdisalan M. Noor, Emelda A. Okiro, G. Dennis Shanks, Robert W. Snow, Simon I. Hay
Primary Institution: Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University
Hypothesis
The study investigates the existence of trends in climate and their potential effects on malaria trends in highland East Africa.
Conclusion
The study finds significant temperature trends in highland East Africa, particularly in Kericho, and indicates a decrease in malaria prevalence in the region.
Supporting Evidence
- Significant trends in temperature were found in newer datasets compared to older ones.
- Malaria prevalence has decreased in highland East Africa despite rising temperatures.
- Data from over 5000 malaria prevalence surveys were analyzed to assess trends.
Takeaway
The study looks at how temperature changes in East Africa might affect malaria. It found that while temperatures are rising, malaria cases have actually gone down.
Methodology
The study applied a robust trend test to mean temperature time series data and analyzed malaria case data from a tea estate hospital.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from the use of interpolated data instead of direct measurements from meteorological stations.
Limitations
The study relies on historical data which may not fully capture recent trends and variations.
Participant Demographics
The study includes data from various locations in highland East Africa, including Kericho, Kenya.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.05
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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