Increased Mortality Rate Linked to Chikungunya in Ahmedabad, India
Author Information
Author(s): Mavalankar Dileep, Shastri Priya, Bandyopadhyay Tathagata, Parmar Jeram, Ramani Karaikurichi V.
Primary Institution: Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Hypothesis
What is the association between the chikungunya epidemic and mortality rates in Ahmedabad?
Conclusion
The chikungunya epidemic in Ahmedabad was associated with an increase of 3,056 excess deaths in 2006 compared to expected mortality rates.
Supporting Evidence
- A total of 3,056 excess deaths were linked to the chikungunya epidemic in Ahmedabad in 2006.
- The peak of chikungunya cases coincided with the peak in mortality rates.
- Mortality rates increased significantly from August to November 2006 compared to previous years.
Takeaway
When a lot of people got sick with chikungunya in Ahmedabad, many more people died than usual, showing that the disease might be very dangerous.
Methodology
Mortality data were collected from the registrar of births and deaths, and chikungunya case data were compiled from municipal hospitals and health centers.
Potential Biases
Inclusion of deaths from surrounding areas may have inflated the reported excess deaths.
Limitations
Death reporting is poor, and the cause of death is not always accurately recorded.
Participant Demographics
The population of Ahmedabad is approximately 3.8 million.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
99% CI 27,500–29,380
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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