Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation and Hospital Use in 2020
Author Information
Author(s): Marya D Zilberberg, Andrew F Shorr
Primary Institution: University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
Hypothesis
The study aims to project the annualized days and costs of hospital use and skilled nursing facility discharges for patients on prolonged acute mechanical ventilation in the US by 2020.
Conclusion
The projected growth in the PAMV population by 2020 will lead to significant increases in hospital resource utilization and costs.
Supporting Evidence
- PAMV patients comprise 1/3 of all adult MV patients and consume 2/3 of hospital resources allocated to the MV population.
- The PAMV population is projected to double by 2020, leading to increased hospital resource utilization.
- The total projected costs for PAMV patients in 2020 are estimated to exceed $64 billion.
Takeaway
More people will need long-term breathing support in hospitals, which means hospitals will have to plan for more beds and staff.
Methodology
A model was constructed to estimate hospital utilization components, using Monte Carlo simulations to establish confidence intervals.
Potential Biases
The study relies on previously reported data, which may introduce bias if those data are inaccurate.
Limitations
The estimates are based on model simulations and may not be generalizable to all PAMV patients.
Participant Demographics
The study focuses on adult patients requiring prolonged acute mechanical ventilation.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% CI 2.7–4.8 million MV days, 4.3–7.0 million ICU days, 8.1–13.0 million hospital days
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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