Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States
Author Information
Author(s): Martin I. Meltzer, Nancy J. Cox, Keiji Fukuda
Primary Institution: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Hypothesis
What are the economic effects of potential vaccine-based interventions during the next influenza pandemic in the United States?
Conclusion
The study estimates that the next influenza pandemic could lead to significant economic losses and that vaccination strategies could provide net savings under certain conditions.
Supporting Evidence
- An estimated 89,000 to 207,000 deaths could occur during the next pandemic.
- Vaccinating 60% of the population could generate the highest economic returns.
- The economic impact of an influenza pandemic could range from $71.3 billion to $166.5 billion.
Takeaway
If a new flu pandemic happens, it could make a lot of people sick and cost a lot of money, but getting vaccinated could help save money if done right.
Methodology
The study used a Monte Carlo simulation model to estimate the economic impact of various vaccination strategies during a potential influenza pandemic.
Limitations
The model does not account for disruptions in commerce and society, which could significantly affect the overall economic impact.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on the U.S. population, particularly highlighting groups at high risk for influenza-related complications.
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