Divergent Trajectories of Arctic Change
Author Information
Author(s): Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, Mia M. Bennett, Isabelle Winston, Lawson W. Brigham, Scott R. Stephenson, Margaret Wilcox, Stephanie Pezard
Primary Institution: RAND Corporation
Hypothesis
What are the expected socio-economic trajectories in different parts of the Arctic by 2050?
Conclusion
The study finds that the Arctic is becoming increasingly heterogeneous, with different sub-regions showing varied expectations for future socio-economic outcomes.
Supporting Evidence
- The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979.
- Different sub-regions of the Arctic are trending in different socio-economic directions.
- The study highlights the concept of 'many Arctics' reflecting diverse trajectories.
- Expert consensus was built through a Delphi exercise involving 78 participants.
- Geopolitical tensions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine have impacted Arctic cooperation.
- Indigenous self-determination is a key factor influencing future governance in the Arctic.
- Expectations for economic growth vary significantly across different Arctic sub-regions.
- Climate change is driving rapid changes in the Arctic's socio-economic landscape.
Takeaway
The Arctic is changing in many different ways, and different areas will experience these changes differently by 2050.
Methodology
The study used a mixed methods approach, including a literature review and a Delphi expert elicitation exercise to forecast socio-economic changes.
Potential Biases
The results may reflect assumptions from certain knowledgeable participants and the Delphi method's limitations in capturing diverse perspectives.
Limitations
The research faced challenges in expert participation, particularly from Russian experts, and was limited to ten outcomes in the Delphi exercise.
Participant Demographics
Experts from various fields including Arctic governance, environmental policy, and Indigenous affairs participated.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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