Seasonality of Human H5N1 Infection in Egypt and Indonesia
Author Information
Author(s): Murray Eleanor J., Morse Stephen S.
Primary Institution: Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
Hypothesis
Do human H5N1 cases occur seasonally in association with changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity?
Conclusion
Human H5N1 incidence in Egypt shows a seasonal pattern, while in Indonesia, the relationship with climate is less clear.
Supporting Evidence
- H5N1 cases in Egypt peaked in late winter and early spring.
- Human H5N1 incidence in Indonesia oscillated with a period of 1.67 years.
- Weather conditions in Egypt coincided with peak human H5N1 incidence.
Takeaway
The study looked at how weather affects human cases of bird flu in Egypt and Indonesia, finding that Egypt has a seasonal pattern while Indonesia does not.
Methodology
Fourier time series analysis was used to analyze H5N1 human cases and weather data.
Potential Biases
Potential under- or over-reporting of cases clustered in time.
Limitations
The small number of cases and short time span may have reduced the significance level of results.
Participant Demographics
Human H5N1 cases in Indonesia (n=135) and Egypt (n=50).
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.05 for Indonesia; pā 0.10 for Egypt.
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 0.87ā0.95
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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