Why most published research findings are false: Problems in the analysis
2007
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
publication
Evidence: low
Author Information
Author(s): Steven Goodman, Sander Greenland
Primary Institution: Johns Hopkins School of Medicine
Hypothesis
Are most published research claims false?
Conclusion
The claims that most published medical research findings are false and that research in 'hot' areas is most likely to be false are unfounded.
Supporting Evidence
- The probability of hypotheses depends on more than just the p-value.
- The more studies published on a subject, the higher the absolute number of false positive and false negative studies.
- The model cannot be considered a proof that most published claims are untrue.
Takeaway
The study says that many research claims might be wrong, especially in popular areas, but this idea is not proven.
Potential Biases
The introduction of a bias term in calculations can significantly reduce a study's evidential impact.
Limitations
The mathematical model used in the original paper diminishes the evidential value of studies.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p = 0.001
Statistical Significance
p ≤ 0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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