Bayesian Estimation of the Probability of Virologic Failure on Cabotegravir and Rilpivirine Long-Acting in Real Life
2025

Estimating Virologic Failure Risk in Real Life for HIV Treatment

Sample size: 175 publication Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Muacevic Alexander, Adler John R, Noe Sebastian, Ivanova Anna, Schabaz Farhad, von Krosigk Ariane E, Wiese Carmen, Wolf Eva, Jonson-Oldenbuettel Celia

Primary Institution: HIV Research and Clinical Care, Medizinisches Versorgungszentrum München am Goetheplatz, Munich, DEU

Hypothesis

The study aimed to estimate the probability of virologic failure and discontinuation among people with HIV on cabotegravir and rilpivirine long-acting therapy in real life.

Conclusion

The risk of virologic failure on cabotegravir and rilpivirine long-acting therapy in real life is comparable to clinical trial results, although discontinuation rates may be higher.

Supporting Evidence

  • The study included 175 people with HIV who received cabotegravir and rilpivirine.
  • Only 1.1% of participants experienced virologic failure at week 48.
  • The discontinuation rate was found to be 21.4%, which is higher than in clinical trials.

Takeaway

This study looked at how well a new HIV treatment works in real life. It found that the treatment works just as well as in tests, but more people stopped using it.

Methodology

A retrospective, single-center, longitudinal, observational study using Bayesian estimation based on prior knowledge and real-world data.

Potential Biases

The study may be biased due to the single-center design and the specific patient population that may not represent all people with HIV.

Limitations

The sample size is small compared to clinical trials, and the study is based on a single-center experience, which may not reflect broader real-world conditions.

Participant Demographics

{"age":{"median":45,"IQR":[36,53]},"sex":{"male":149,"percentage":85.1},"ethnicity":{"Caucasian":132,"percentage":75.4},"route_of_transmission":{"MSM":91,"percentage":79.1}}

Statistical Information

Confidence Interval

{"virologic_failure":[0.6,1.9],"discontinuation":[7.3,10.5]}

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.7759/cureus.76829

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