Obesity Trends in the USA from 1990 to 2021 and Future Projections
Author Information
Author(s): GBD 2021 US Obesity Forecasting Collaborators, Ng Marie, Dai Xiaochen, Cogen Rebecca M, Abdelmasseh Michael, Abdollahi Arash, Abdullahi Auwal, Aboagye Richard Gyan, Abukhadijah Hana J, Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther, Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika, Ahmad Danish, Ahmad Noah, Ahmed Ayman, Ahmed Syed Anees, Akkaif Mohammed Ahmed, Akrami Ashley E, Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz, Al Ta'ani Omar, Alahdab Fares, Al-Aly Ziyad, Aldhaleei Wafa A, Algammal Abdelazeem M, Ali Waad, Al-Ibraheem Akram, Alqahatni Saleh A, Al-Rifai Rami H, Alshahrani Najim Z, Al-Wardat Mohammad, Aly Hany, Al-Zyoud Walid A, Amiri Sohrab, Anil Abhishek, Arabloo Jalal, Aravkin Aleksandr Y, Ardekani Ali, Areda Demelash, Ashemo Mubarek Yesse, Atreya Alok, Azadnajafabad Sina, Aziz Shahkaar, Azzopardi Peter S, Babu Giridhara Rathnaiah, Baig Atif Amin, Bako Abdulaziz T, Bansal Kannu, Bärnighausen Till Winfried, Bastan Mohammad-Mahdi, Bemanalizadeh Maryam, Beran Azizullah, Beyene Habtamu B, Bhaskar Sonu, Bilgin Cem, Bleyer Archie, Borhany Hamed, Boyko Edward J, Braithwaite Dejana, Bryazka Dana, Bugiardini Raffaele, Bustanji Yasser, Butt Zahid A, Çakmak Barsbay Mehtap, Campos-Nonato Ismael, Cembranel Francieli, Cerin Ester, Chacón-Uscamaita Pamela Roxana, Chandrasekar Eeshwar K, Chattu Vijay Kumar, Chen An-Tian, Chen Guangjin, Chi Gerald, Ching Patrick R, Cho So Mi Jemma, Choi Dong-Woo, Chong Bryan, Chung Sheng-Chia, Cindi Zinhle, Cini Karly I, Columbus Alyssa, Couto Rosa A S, Criqui Michael H, Cruz-Martins Natalia, Da'ar Omar B, Dadras Omid, Dai Zhaoli, Darcho Samuel Demissie, Dash Nihar Ranjan, Desai Hardik Dineshbhai, Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda, Diaz Daniel, Diaz Michael J, Do Thanh Chi, Dolatshahi Mahsa, D'Oria Mario, Doshi Ojas Prakashbhai, Doshi Rajkumar Prakashbhai, Dowou Robert Kokou, Dube John, Dumuid Dorothea, Dziedzic Arkadiusz Marian, E'mar Abdel Rahman, El Arab Rabie Adel, El Bayoumy Ibrahim Farahat, Elhadi Muhammed, Eltaha Chadi, Falzone Luca, Farrokhpour Hossein, Fazeli Patrick, Feigin Valery L, Fekadu Ginenus, Ferreira Nuno, Fischer Florian, Francis Kate Louise, Gadanya Muktar A, Gebregergis Miglas Welay, Ghadimi Delaram J, Gholami Ehsan, Golechha Mahaveer, Golinelli Davide, Gona Philimon N, Gouravani Mahdi, Grada Ayman, Grover Ashna, Guha Avirup, Gupta Rahul, Habibzadeh Parham, Haep Nils, Halimi Aram, Hasan Md. Kamrul, Hasnain Md Saquib, Hay Simon I, He Wen-Qiang, Hebert Jeffrey J, Hemmati Mehdi, Hiraike Yuta, Hoan Nguyen Quoc, Hostiuc Sorin, Hu Chengxi, Huang Junjie, Huynh Hong-Han, Islam Md. Rabiul, Islam Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Jacob Louis, Joseph Abel, Kamarajah Sivesh Kathir, Kanmodi Kehinde Kazeem, Kantar Rami S, Karimi Yeganeh, Kazemian Sina, Khan Mohammad Jobair, Khan Muhammad Shahzeb, Khanal Praval, Khanmohammadi Shaghayegh, Khatab Khaled, Khatatbeh Moawiah Mohammad, Khormali Moein, Khubchandani Jagdish, Kiconco Sylvia, Kim Min Seo, Kimokoti Ruth W, Kisa Adnan, Kulimbet Mukhtar, Kumar Vijay, Kundu Satyajit, Kurmi Om P, Lai Hanpeng, Le Nhi Huu Hanh, Lee Munjae, Lee Seung Won, Lee Wei-Chen, Li An, Li Wei, Lim Stephen S, Lin Jialing, Lindstedt Paulina A, Liu Xiaofeng, Lo Justin, López-Gil José Francisco, Lucchetti Giancarlo, Luo Lisha, Lusk Jay B, Mahmoudi Elham, Malakan Rad Elaheh, Manla Yosef, Martinez-Piedra Ramon, Mathangasinghe Yasith, Matozinhos Fernanda Penido, McPhail Steven M, Meles Hadush Negash, Mensah George A, Meo Sultan Ayoub, Mestrovic Tomislav, Michalek Irmina Maria, Mini GK, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari Mohammad, Mocciaro Gabriele, Mohamed Jama, Mohamed Mouhand F H, Mohamed Nouh Saad, Mohammad Ameen Mosa, Mohammed Shafiu, Mokdad Ali H, Momenzadeh Kaveh, Momtazmanesh Sara, Montazeri Fateme, Moradi-Lakeh Maziar, Morrison Shane Douglas, Motappa Rohith, Mullany Erin C, Murray Christopher J L, Naghavi Pirouz, Najdaghi Soroush, Narimani Davani Delaram, Nascimento Gustavo G, Natto Zuhair S, Nguyen Dang H, Nguyen Hau Thi Hien, Nguyen Phat Tuan, Nguyen Van Thanh, Nigatu Yeshambel T, Nikravangolsefid Nasrin, Noor Syed Toukir Ahmed, Nugen Fred, Nzoputam Ogochukwu Janet, Oancea Bogdan, O'Connell Erin M, Okeke Sylvester Reuben, Olagunju Andrew T, Olasupo Omotola O, Olorukooba Abdulhakeem Abayomi, Ostroff Samuel M, Oulhaj Abderrahim, Owolabi Mayowa O, P A Mahesh Padukudru, Parikh Romil R, Park Seoyeon, Park Sungchul, Pashaei Ava, Pereira Gavin, Pham Hoang Nhat, Pham Tom, Philip Anil K, Pradhan Jalandhar, Pradhan Pranil Man Singh, Pronk Nicolaas P, Puvvula Jagadeesh, Rafiei Alavi Seyedeh Niloufar, Raggi Catalina, Rahman Muhammad Aziz, Rahmani Bita, Rahmanian Mohammad, Ramasamy Shakthi Kumaran, Ranabhat Chhabi Lal, Rao Sowmya J, Rashedi Sina, Rashid Ahmed Mustafa, Redwan Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed, Rhee Taeho Gregory, Rodrigues Monica, Rodriguez Jefferson Antonio Buendia, Sabet Cameron John, Sabour Siamak, Saeed Umar, Sagoe Dominic, Saleh Mohamed A, Samuel Vijaya Paul, Samy Abdallah M, Saravanan Aswini, Sawhney Monika, Sawyer Susan M M, Scarmeas Nikolaos, Schlaich Markus P, Schuermans Art, Sepanlou Sadaf G, Seylani Allen, Shafie Mahan, Shah Nilay S, Shamim Muhammad Aaqib, Shamshirgaran Mohammad Ali, Sharfaei Sadaf, Sharifan Amin, Sharma Anupam, Sharma Manoj, Sheikh Aziz, Shenoy Rekha Raghuveer, Shetty Premalatha K, Shibuya Kenji, Shittu Aminu, Shuval Kerem, Siddig Emmanuel Edwar, Silva Diego Augusto Santos, Singh Jasvinder A, Smith Amanda E, Solanki Ranjan, Soliman Sameh S M, Song Yi, Soraneh Soroush, Straif Kurt, Szarpak Lukasz, Tabatabaei Seyyed Mohammad, Tabche Celine, Tanwar Manoj, Tat Nathan Y, Temsah Mohamad-Hani, Thavamani Aravind, Tran Thang Huu, Trico Domenico, Truyen Thien Tan Tri Tai, Tyrovolas Stefanos, Udoh Arit, Ullah Sana, Vahabi Seyed Mohammad, Vahdati Sanaz, Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj, Vakilpour Azin, Van den Eynde Jef, Vinayak Manish, Weerakoon Kosala Gayan, Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana, Wolde Asrat Arja, Wonde Tewodros Eshete, Xu Suowen, Yang Lin, Yano Yuichiro, Yiğit Arzu, Yon Dong Keon, Yu Chuanhua, Yuan Chun-Wei, Zastrozhin Michael, Zeariya Mohammed G M, Zhong Claire Chenwen, Zhu Bin, Zhumagaliuly Abzal, Zielińska Magdalena, Zyoud Sa'ed H, Kerr Jessica A, Vollset Stein Emil, Gakidou Emmanuela
Primary Institution: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Hypothesis
What are the trends and future projections of overweight and obesity prevalence in the USA?
Conclusion
The prevalence of overweight and obesity in the USA has significantly increased, with projections indicating that by 2050, over 80% of adults may be affected.
Supporting Evidence
- In 2021, an estimated 15.1 million children and young adolescents had overweight or obesity in the USA.
- The prevalence of obesity has increased significantly among adolescents, especially females.
- Forecasts suggest that by 2050, the total number of adults with overweight or obesity will reach 213 million.
Takeaway
More and more people in the USA are becoming overweight or obese, and if things don't change, many more will be by 2050.
Methodology
Data was collected from 134 sources, including national surveys, and analyzed using statistical models to estimate prevalence and forecast future trends.
Potential Biases
Self-reported data may introduce bias, although adjustments were made to correct for this.
Limitations
The study did not report state-level prevalence for children aged 5-14 years due to data quality issues and did not examine racial and ethnic disparities.
Participant Demographics
The study included children, adolescents, and adults across the USA, with specific age groups defined for analysis.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% UI
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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