Estimating Lifetime Risk of Cancer
Author Information
Author(s): Sasieni P D, Shelton J, Ormiston-Smith N, Thomson C S, Silcocks P B
Primary Institution: Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Bart's and The London School of Medicine, Queen Mary University of London
Hypothesis
What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries
Conclusion
Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method.
Supporting Evidence
- The new method provides a more accurate view of lifetime risk as opposed to the commonly used measures based on mean number of events.
- The estimated lifetime risk of developing cancer was 39% for males and 38% for females using the new method.
- The usual 'current probability' method tends to overestimate the lifetime risk of cancer.
Takeaway
This study shows a new way to calculate how likely people are to get cancer in their lifetime, which is more accurate than previous methods.
Methodology
The study describes a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in incidence rates.
Potential Biases
The method may overestimate or underestimate risks for certain cancers due to the assumptions made.
Limitations
The new method makes assumptions that may not hold exactly, such as non-cancer mortality rates being the same in individuals without cancer as in the general population.
Participant Demographics
Data were obtained from cancer registries in Scotland, covering various age groups and both sexes.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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