Declining Malaria Cases in UK Travelers from West Africa
Author Information
Author(s): Ron H Behrens, Bernadette Carroll, Valerie Smith, Neal Alexander
Primary Institution: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Hypothesis
What are the recent trends and future patterns of imported malaria acquired by UK residents visiting West Africa?
Conclusion
The decline in malaria incidence among travelers suggests a reduction in malaria transmission in West Africa.
Supporting Evidence
- Malaria incidence in VFR travelers fell from 196 cases/1,000 person-years to 52 cases/1,000 person-years.
- Travel to West Africa increased by 2.3-fold during the study period.
- Imported malaria cases from West Africa among VFR rose by 15% from 364 to 418 in 2006.
- 85% of malaria cases in UK residents from West Africa originated from Nigeria and Ghana.
- Malaria incidence in non-VFR travelers decreased by 7.0% per year.
- Malaria incidence in West African visitors to the UK fell by 7.9% annually.
- Changing chemoprophylaxis usage may have contributed to the decline in malaria incidence.
- Reduction in malaria transmission in urban areas may also explain the decline.
Takeaway
Fewer people are getting malaria when they travel to and from West Africa, which is good news! This might be because malaria is becoming less common in those areas.
Methodology
The study analyzed travel data and malaria surveillance reports from 1993 to 2006 to assess trends in malaria incidence among travelers.
Potential Biases
Possible methodological problems such as unrepresentative samples could affect the findings.
Limitations
Data on malaria cases may be under-reported and the study did not capture travelers who fell ill abroad.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on UK residents traveling to West Africa and West African visitors to the UK.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p < 0.0001
Confidence Interval
95% CI 6.5–13%
Statistical Significance
p < 0.0001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website