Prediction Model for Difficult Esophageal Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection
Author Information
Author(s): Gao Li, Su Jing, Ding Hailong, Qian Haisheng, Zhang Guoxin, Yan Jin
Primary Institution: The First Affiliated Hospital with Nanjing Medical University
Hypothesis
Can a prediction model be established to triage difficult esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) to reduce complications?
Conclusion
A prediction model for assessing the difficulty of esophageal ESD was successfully established, providing a scientific basis for clinical management to reduce complications.
Supporting Evidence
- The model was validated in a separate cohort with an area under the ROC curve of 0.719.
- Risk factors included lesion length, circumference, and preoperative invasion depth.
- Patients with a higher score had a significantly higher probability of difficult ESD.
Takeaway
Doctors created a scoring system to help predict how hard it will be to remove cancer from the esophagus using a special technique, which can help avoid problems during surgery.
Methodology
This retrospective study analyzed data from 742 patients who underwent ESD for early esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions, using logistic regression to identify predictors of technical difficulty.
Potential Biases
Selection bias may exist due to the study being conducted at a top-ranked hospital that receives more complex cases.
Limitations
The study was retrospective and conducted at a single center, which may affect the generalizability of the findings.
Participant Demographics
The study included 742 patients with a mean age of 64.58 years, consisting of 70.5% males and 29.5% females.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Confidence Interval
95% CI, 0.726–0.811
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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