How Wetness Affects Malaria Risk in Kenyan Highlands
Author Information
Author(s): Justin M. Cohen, Kacey C. Ernst, Kim A. Lindblade, John M. Vulule, Chandy C. John, Mark L. Wilson
Primary Institution: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan
Hypothesis
Is there a relationship between topography-derived wetness indices and household-level malaria risk in the western Kenyan highlands?
Conclusion
Proximity to terrain with high predicted water accumulation is significantly associated with increased household-level malaria incidence.
Supporting Evidence
- Malaria case households were located 280 m closer to regions with very high wetness indices than non-malaria control households.
- For every 10 m increase in household elevation, there was a 12% decrease in the odds of the house having a malaria case.
- Distance to high wetness indices remained an independent predictor of risk after controlling for household elevation.
Takeaway
Houses near wet areas are more likely to have malaria cases. This means that where water collects can help us understand where malaria is more likely to happen.
Methodology
Hydrologic modeling techniques were used to predict water flow and wetness indices around households, comparing malaria case and control households.
Potential Biases
Potential bias from not accounting for other environmental factors affecting malaria risk.
Limitations
The study did not incorporate factors like rainfall variability, soil characteristics, or human modifications of the environment.
Participant Demographics
Residents of Kipsamoite and Kapsisiywa, with populations of approximately 3,682 and 3,433 respectively.
Statistical Information
P-Value
<0.0001
Confidence Interval
95% CI = 0.89–0.96
Statistical Significance
p<0.0001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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