Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Model for Hospitals in Tacheng, Xinjiang, China
Author Information
Author(s): Xu Yikang, Ma Jingru, Yang Yang, Liu Limin, Zhao Xinran, Wang Yu, Mijiti Alimu, Cheng Qiangru, Ma Jun
Primary Institution: The Second Affiliated Hospital of Shenyang Medical College
Hypothesis
What are the risk factors for coronary heart disease in patients hospitalized in general hospitals in Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang?
Conclusion
The CHD risk prediction model developed in this study demonstrates strong predictive performance and serves as a user-friendly tool for identifying high-risk groups for CHD.
Supporting Evidence
- Non-Han Chinese ethnicity was identified as a significant risk factor for CHD.
- Males were found to have a higher risk of CHD compared to females.
- Alcohol consumption, hyperlipidemia, smoking, and diabetes were also significant risk factors.
- The model showed good discrimination with AUC values of 0.80 and 0.82 for training and validation groups, respectively.
- The model's predictions were validated with calibration curves closely fitting the ideal curve.
Takeaway
This study created a tool to help doctors figure out who is at risk for heart disease based on different factors like age, gender, and lifestyle choices.
Methodology
The study used logistic regression to analyze data from 489 CHD patients and 520 non-CHD individuals, creating a nomogram for risk prediction.
Potential Biases
Potential recall bias in clinical data acquisition and selection bias due to the hospital setting.
Limitations
The study was limited to a single center and may have selection bias; external validation is lacking.
Participant Demographics
The study included 1009 subjects, with 57.6% males and 42.4% females, aged 61.4 years on average.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.05
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 0.8–0.9
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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