Vessel strike encounter risk model informs mortality risk for endangered North Atlantic right whales along the United States east coast
2025

Modeling Vessel Strike Risks for North Atlantic Right Whales

Sample size: 125 publication 10 minutes Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Hannah Blondin, Lance P. Garrison, Jeffrey D. Adams, Jason J. Roberts, Caroline P. Good, Meghan P. Gahm, Niki E. Lisi, Eric M. Patterson

Primary Institution: University of Miami

Hypothesis

The study aims to enhance existing vessel strike models by incorporating detailed regional data on vessel traffic and whale behavior to better estimate mortality risk for North Atlantic right whales.

Conclusion

The study found that vessels over 350 feet in length pose the greatest risk to North Atlantic right whales, and reducing vessel speeds can mitigate mortality rates, although some risk remains.

Supporting Evidence

  • The model incorporates empirical data on whale avoidance and vessel characteristics.
  • It highlights that larger vessels contribute significantly to the mortality risk of right whales.
  • The study suggests that reducing vessel speeds can lead to a decrease in whale mortalities.

Takeaway

Big ships can hurt whales, and if they go slower, it can help keep the whales safe, but there's still a chance of accidents.

Methodology

The study used an updated encounter risk model that incorporates whale behavior, vessel traffic data, and mortality probabilities to assess the risk of vessel strikes on right whales.

Potential Biases

There is a potential bias in mortality estimates due to underreporting of vessel strikes, especially involving smaller vessels.

Limitations

The model may not fully capture the risks posed by smaller vessels due to underrepresentation in AIS data and lacks detailed data on whale avoidance behavior.

Participant Demographics

The study focuses on North Atlantic right whales, with an estimated population of 372 individuals remaining.

Statistical Information

Confidence Interval

95% CI: from 360 to 383 individuals

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1038/s41598-024-84886-z

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