Cost of School Closures During the 2009 H1N1 Epidemic
Author Information
Author(s): Shawn T Brown, Julie HY Tai, Rachel R Bailey, Philip C Cooley, William D Wheaton, Margaret A Potter, Ronald E Voorhees, Megan LeJeune, John J Grefenstette, Donald S Burke, Sarah M McGlone, Bruce Y Lee
Primary Institution: Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh
Hypothesis
Would school closure for the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic have been worth the cost?
Conclusion
Closing schools during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic could have resulted in substantial costs to society, outweighing the benefits of preventing influenza cases.
Supporting Evidence
- Closing schools resulted in higher net costs than not closing schools.
- Median net costs for an 8-week closure were estimated at $21.0 billion.
- The cost per influenza case averted was significantly high, ranging from $14,185 to $25,253 depending on the reproductive rate.
Takeaway
The study looked at whether closing schools during the flu outbreak would save money or cost more. It found that closing schools would likely cost a lot more than it would save.
Methodology
A combination of agent-based and Monte Carlo economic simulation modeling was used to analyze the cost-benefit of school closures for different durations and case incidence triggers.
Limitations
The model does not account for all factors influencing school closure decisions and focuses primarily on direct economic costs.
Participant Demographics
The model used a synthetic population representing the state of Pennsylvania.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% Range: $8.0 - $45.3 billion
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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