Coccidioidomycosis Incidence in Arizona Predicted by Seasonal Precipitation
2011

Coccidioidomycosis and Seasonal Precipitation in Arizona

Sample size: 23999 publication Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Tamerius James D., Comrie Andrew C.

Primary Institution: University of Arizona

Hypothesis

How does seasonal precipitation affect the incidence of coccidioidomycosis in Arizona?

Conclusion

The study found that October–December precipitation is positively associated with coccidioidomycosis exposure rates in Arizona.

Supporting Evidence

  • October–December precipitation is positively associated with exposure rates during the primary exposure season.
  • Exposure rates during the primary season are negatively correlated with concurrent precipitation.
  • The models explain 69% of the variance in Maricopa and 54% in Pima counties.

Takeaway

This study shows that rain in the fall helps the fungus that causes Valley Fever grow, but too much rain in the spring can stop the spores from spreading.

Methodology

The study analyzed 12 years of coccidioidomycosis case data from Arizona, focusing on the relationship between exposure rates and seasonal precipitation.

Potential Biases

Potential biases may arise from the increasing trend in exposure rates over time, which could influence statistical associations.

Limitations

The study is limited by the availability of only 12 years of data, which may affect the confidence in the statistical associations identified.

Participant Demographics

The study included cases from Maricopa County and Pima County in Arizona.

Statistical Information

P-Value

p=0.012 for Maricopa, p=0.019 for Pima

Confidence Interval

95% CI: 16%, 44%

Statistical Significance

p<0.05

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pone.0021009

Want to read the original?

Access the complete publication on the publisher's website

View Original Publication