Cancer Mortality Projections in the UK
Author Information
Author(s): Olsen A H, Parkin D M, Sasieni P
Primary Institution: Cancer Research UK
Hypothesis
What will cancer mortality rates look like in the UK from 2006 to 2025?
Conclusion
Cancer mortality rates in the UK are projected to decline for most cancers, but the actual number of deaths will increase due to population growth and aging.
Supporting Evidence
- Mortality rates from cancer have been falling in the UK since 1990.
- The projected decrease in age-standardised mortality rates is 17% in men and 16% in women from 2003 to 2023.
- Despite declining rates, the number of cancer deaths is expected to increase by 30% in men and 12% in women due to population growth.
Takeaway
This study predicts how many people will die from cancer in the UK over the next 20 years. Even though fewer people will die from cancer overall, more people will die because there will be more older people.
Methodology
Age-period-cohort models were applied to official statistics to project mortality rates based on past trends.
Limitations
Projections do not account for potential future changes in cancer incidence or mortality rates beyond general trends.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website