Incubation Period from Barrett's Oesophagus to Adenocarcinoma
Author Information
Author(s): den Hoed C M, van Blankenstein M, Dees J, Kuipers E J
Primary Institution: Erasmus Medical Centre
Hypothesis
What is the incubation period from the onset of Barrett's oesophagus to symptomatic adenocarcinoma?
Conclusion
The study suggests a long incubation period of three decades or more between the onset of Barrett's oesophagus and the development of high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma.
Supporting Evidence
- The mean interval between Barrett's oesophagus diagnosis and high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was found to be 14.7 years.
- Survivors without high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma had a mean follow-up of 25.5 years.
- Baseline presence of low-grade dysplasia was associated with progression to high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma.
Takeaway
This study found that it takes a very long time, possibly over 30 years, for Barrett's oesophagus to turn into cancer.
Methodology
The study analyzed intervals between Barrett's oesophagus diagnosis and adenocarcinoma in a long-term follow-up cohort.
Potential Biases
Potential bias due to exclusion of patients with high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma at baseline.
Limitations
The true onset of Barrett's oesophagus is unrecorded, making it difficult to measure the incubation period directly.
Participant Demographics
The cohort consisted of 133 patients, with 73 males and 60 females, average age at Barrett's diagnosis of 62.4 years.
Statistical Information
P-Value
P<0.001
Confidence Interval
95% CI 0.58–0.74
Statistical Significance
p<0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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