Screening for Future Cardiovascular Disease Using Age Alone Compared with Multiple Risk Factors
Author Information
Author(s): Wald Nicholas J., Simmonds Mark, Morris Joan K.
Primary Institution: Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
Hypothesis
Is screening for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) using age alone as effective as using multiple risk factors along with age?
Conclusion
Age screening for future CVD events is simpler than Framingham screening with a similar screening performance and cost-effectiveness.
Supporting Evidence
- Age screening detected 86% of all first CVD events arising in the population every year.
- The estimated cost per CVD-free year of life gained was £2,000 for age screening.
- Age screening has a 24% false-positive rate compared to 21% for Framingham screening.
Takeaway
This study found that just using age to screen for heart disease is almost as good as using a bunch of other health factors, and it's much simpler.
Methodology
The study estimated 10-year CVD risk using Framingham risk equations in a simulated population of 500,000 people aged 0–89 years.
Limitations
The study is based on statistical modeling rather than observed measurements from a cohort of individuals.
Participant Demographics
The simulated population included individuals aged 0–89 years, reflecting the age and sex distributions of England and Wales.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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