Risk Based Culling for Infectious Livestock Diseases
Author Information
Author(s): Dennis E te Beest, Thomas J Hagenaars, J Arjan Stegeman, Marion PG Koopmans, Michiel van Boven
Primary Institution: Utrecht University
Hypothesis
Can a risk-based culling strategy reduce the number of farms culled during outbreaks of highly infectious livestock diseases compared to conventional methods?
Conclusion
The risk-based culling strategy is more effective than traditional ring culling, leading to fewer infected farms culled and a shorter epidemic duration.
Supporting Evidence
- Risk based culling reduced the number of infected farms culled compared to both 1 km and 3 km ring culling strategies.
- The total number of farms culled was lower with risk based culling than with traditional methods.
- The duration of the epidemic was typically shorter with risk based culling.
Takeaway
This study suggests that when there's an outbreak of animal diseases, we should first remove the farms that are most likely to spread the disease, which helps save more farms and animals.
Methodology
The study used a stochastic SEIR model to simulate outbreaks and compared risk-based culling with traditional ring culling strategies.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from the assumptions made about transmission probabilities and the uniformity of farm infectivity.
Limitations
The model assumes uniform infectivity across farms and may not account for variability in susceptibility.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
(194;239)
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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