Civilian Targeting in Armed Conflicts (2002-2007)
Author Information
Author(s): Hicks Madelyn Hsiao-Rei, Lee Uih Ran, Sundberg Ralph, Spagat Michael
Primary Institution: King's College London
Hypothesis
What factors influence combatant groups' decisions to target civilians versus engage in battles?
Conclusion
Most warring groups in 2002–2007 did not target civilians, and those that did in smaller conflicts concentrated more on civilian targeting than on battles.
Supporting Evidence
- 61% of all actors refrained from targeting civilians.
- Actors were more likely to target civilians if involved in conflict for three or more years.
- State and non-state actors did not differ significantly in their targeting behavior.
- Actors with lower total fatalities were more likely to concentrate on civilian targeting.
Takeaway
In wars, many groups choose not to hurt civilians, and those that do often focus on civilians when the fighting is small and short.
Methodology
The study analyzed data from 226 organized combatant groups involved in armed conflict from 2002 to 2007, measuring fatalities from civilian targeting and battles.
Potential Biases
Potential biases arise from the reliance on media and NGO reports, which may undercount fatalities in certain conflicts.
Limitations
The study relies on data from secondary sources, which may introduce biases in reporting fatalities.
Participant Demographics
The study included 43 state actors and 183 non-state actors involved in armed conflicts.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.012
Confidence Interval
95% CI 55% to 67%
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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