Epidemiological Characteristics and Prediction of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Quzhou City, China
Author Information
Author(s): Xu Wenjie, Zheng Canjie, Fu Canya, Gong Xiaoying, Fang Quanjun, Yin Zhiying
Primary Institution: Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Hypothesis
What are the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Quzhou City, and how can a prediction model for HFMD be established?
Conclusion
The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Quzhou is rising, and the SARIMA model outperforms the Prophet model in predicting HFMD trends.
Supporting Evidence
- From 2010 to 2023, Quzhou City reported a total of 66,601 cases of HFMD.
- The average annual incidence rate was 216.88/100,000.
- The incidence rate of HFMD in males was higher than that in females.
- The SARIMA model showed better prediction accuracy than the Prophet model.
Takeaway
This study looks at how many kids got sick with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Quzhou and tries to predict future cases using math models.
Methodology
Descriptive epidemiological methods were used, and prediction models were constructed using SARIMA and Prophet models.
Potential Biases
Potential biases due to reliance on reported cases and the specific regional focus of the study.
Limitations
The study relied on passive surveillance data, which may introduce biases such as underreporting.
Participant Demographics
The majority of cases were in children aged 0-5 years, with a higher incidence in males (58.03%).
Statistical Information
P-Value
<0.001
Statistical Significance
p<0.001
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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