Modeling Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission
Author Information
Author(s): Emily S. Almberg, Paul C. Cross, Christopher J. Johnson, Dennis M. Heisey, Bryan J. Richards
Primary Institution: Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, United States Geological Survey
Hypothesis
Long-term environmental prion persistence would dramatically alter deer-CWD dynamics as well as the potential for host-pathogen co-existence.
Conclusion
The study suggests that chronic wasting disease epidemics may be characterized by higher values of R0, peak and endemic prevalences, and more severe host declines than previously thought due to indirect transmission.
Supporting Evidence
- Prion survival rates significantly affect disease dynamics and host population outcomes.
- Indirect transmission plays a critical role in the spread of chronic wasting disease.
- Environmental reservoirs of prions can lead to higher disease prevalence and host declines.
Takeaway
Chronic wasting disease can spread not just from deer to deer, but also from the environment, which can make it harder to control the disease.
Methodology
Simulation models were used to explore the impacts of indirect transmission on CWD dynamics among cervids.
Potential Biases
Potential biases may arise from the reliance on existing data from specific regions and the assumptions made in modeling.
Limitations
The study relies on assumptions about transmission rates and prion survival, which are not fully understood.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on North American mule deer, white-tailed deer, elk, and moose.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.01
Statistical Significance
p<0.01
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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