Climate Change and Seabird Populations
Author Information
Author(s): Jana W. E. Jeglinski, Holly I. Niven, Sarah Wanless, Robert T. Barrett, Mike P. Harris, Jochen Dierschke, Jason Matthiopoulos
Primary Institution: University of Glasgow
Hypothesis
How does climate change affect the metapopulation dynamics of the Northern gannet over two centuries?
Conclusion
The study predicts that climate change will have varying impacts on different gannet colonies, with some benefiting and others declining.
Supporting Evidence
- The study used a Bayesian model fitted to 116 years of data.
- Fecundity was found to vary non-linearly with air temperature.
- Recruitment rates were influenced by sea surface temperature.
- Different climate scenarios predicted divergent population trajectories.
Takeaway
This study looks at how changing weather affects seabird populations, showing that some birds might do better while others might struggle.
Methodology
A Bayesian metapopulation model was used to analyze 116 years of colony census data and climatic covariates.
Limitations
The model does not account for potential distance decay in metapopulation connectivity and focuses only on breeding season dynamics.
Participant Demographics
The study focuses on the Northern gannet (Morus bassanus) across 53 colonies in the Northeast Atlantic.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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