The most severe HIV epidemic in Europe: Ukraine’s national HIV prevalence estimates for 2007
2008

HIV Epidemic in Ukraine: 2007 Estimates

Sample size: 395000 publication Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Yuriy V Kruglov, Y V Kobyshcha, T Salyuk, O Varetska, A Shakarishvili, V P Saldanha

Primary Institution: Ukrainian AIDS Centre, Ministry of Health of Ukraine

Hypothesis

To revise the national HIV estimates and quantify the magnitude of the HIV epidemic in Ukraine at the end of 2007.

Conclusion

The HIV epidemic in Ukraine continues to grow at a record pace, concentrated among most at-risk populations, many of whom are unaware of their HIV status.

Supporting Evidence

  • An estimated 395,000 adults aged 15-49 were living with HIV in Ukraine at the end of 2007.
  • Adult HIV prevalence was estimated at 1.63%, the highest in Europe.
  • Many at-risk populations remain unaware of their HIV status.

Takeaway

In Ukraine, many people are living with HIV, and the number is increasing, especially among groups at higher risk like drug users and sex workers.

Methodology

Estimation of the size of most at-risk populations was performed using capture-recapture, multiplier, and triangulation methods.

Potential Biases

The use of sentinel surveillance data may have resulted in some degree of overestimation of national HIV prevalence.

Limitations

The estimates may underestimate the scale of the HIV epidemic as they only include individuals who have been tested and diagnosed.

Participant Demographics

Adults aged 15-49 living with HIV in Ukraine.

Statistical Information

Confidence Interval

230000–573000

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1136/sti.2008.031195

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