Global Scenarios of Air Pollutant Emissions from Road Transport through to 2050
Author Information
Author(s): Takeshita Takayuki
Primary Institution: The University of Tokyo
Hypothesis
What are the future scenarios of SO2, NOx, and PM emissions from road transport considering various regulatory and policy impacts?
Conclusion
Global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles can decrease substantially if developing countries adopt stringent vehicle emission standards in a timely manner.
Supporting Evidence
- Global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease by 97.9%, 87.0%, and 93.1% respectively from 2000 to 2050 in the BaU scenario.
- The timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries significantly impacts future emissions.
- Global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on emissions from road vehicles.
Takeaway
This study looks at how air pollution from cars and trucks could change by 2050, especially if countries start following stricter rules sooner.
Methodology
The study uses a global energy system model (REDGEM70) to project emissions based on various scenarios.
Limitations
The assumptions about the timing of emission regulations in developing countries may be overly optimistic.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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