Impact of Heat on Dengue Hospitalizations in Brazil
Author Information
Author(s): Lopes Rafael, Basagaña Xavier, Bastos Leonardo S. L., Bozza Fernando A., Ranzani Otavio T.
Primary Institution: Instituto de Física Teórica - IFT, UNESP, São Paulo, Brazil
Hypothesis
Short-term high ambient temperatures are positively associated with the risk of hospitalization due to dengue.
Conclusion
Short-term high temperatures are associated with an increase in the risk of hospitalization by dengue.
Supporting Evidence
- A total of 579,703 hospital admissions due to dengue occurred between 2010 and 2019.
- The RR was 3.47 under extreme heat (95th percentile of temperature) compared with minimum hospitalization risk.
- The risk was of greater magnitude among females and those aged ≥65 years.
- This study provides the first nationwide evidence of a short-term association between high ambient temperatures and increased risk of dengue-related hospitalizations in Brazil.
Takeaway
When it gets really hot, more people in Brazil end up in the hospital because of dengue fever.
Methodology
Daily dengue hospitalization counts and average daily ambient temperature from 2010 to 2019 were analyzed using a case time series design and distributed lag nonlinear models.
Potential Biases
Potential exposure misclassification when using reanalysis data, particularly in the North region.
Limitations
The study did not account for other factors that could modify the effects of high temperatures, and there is potential for exposure misclassification in the North region.
Participant Demographics
The overall mean age of hospitalized patients was 30 years, with a higher risk observed among females and those aged 65 and older.
Statistical Information
P-Value
3.47 (95% CI: 2.88, 4.19)
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 2.88, 4.19
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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