A comparative study of four intensive care outcome prediction models in cardiac surgery patients

2011

Comparing ICU Outcome Prediction Models for Heart Surgery Patients

Sample size: 2801 publication Evidence: high

Author Information

Author(s): Doerr Fabian, Badreldin Akmal MA, Heldwein Matthias B, Bossert Torsten, Richter Markus, Lehmann Thomas, Bayer Ole, Hekmat Khosro

Primary Institution: Friedrich-Schiller-University of Jena

Hypothesis

How do different intensive care outcome prediction models perform in cardiac surgery patients?

Conclusion

CASUS and SOFA are reliable ICU mortality risk stratification models for cardiac surgery patients, while SAPS II and APACHE II did not perform well.

Supporting Evidence

CASUS showed the best discrimination between survivors and non-survivors with an area under curve ≥ 0.90.
SAPS II and APACHE II had significant discrepancies between predicted and observed outcomes.
The ICU mortality rate was 5.2% among the study participants.

Takeaway

This study looked at different scoring systems to see which ones are best at predicting if heart surgery patients will survive in the ICU. CASUS was found to be the best.

Methodology

The study included all consecutive adult patients who underwent open heart surgery and were admitted to the ICU over a two-year period, with daily scoring and assessment of ICU mortality.