Impact of Winter Mortality on Summer Heat-Related Deaths in South Korea
Author Information
Author(s): Ha Jongsik, Kim Ho, Hajat Shakoor
Primary Institution: Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, South Korea
Hypothesis
Low mortality levels in the previous winter may increase the proportion of vulnerable individuals at risk of heat-related death during the summer months.
Conclusion
Low winter all-cause mortality leads to higher mortality during the next summer.
Supporting Evidence
- Temperatures above city-specific thresholds were associated with increased mortality in all three cities.
- Associations were stronger in summers preceded by winters with low versus high mortality levels.
- Effect modification by previous-winter mortality was not evident for cardiovascular disease outcomes.
Takeaway
If fewer people die in winter, more people might be at risk of dying from heat in the summer. This study shows that winter deaths can affect summer health.
Methodology
Poisson regression models were used to estimate associations between summer temperature increases and daily mortality counts, adjusted for various factors.
Limitations
The study could not control for air pollution for the full period analyzed.
Participant Demographics
The study examined deaths across all ages and specifically among persons aged 65 years and older.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.008, 0.014, 0.038
Confidence Interval
95% CI, 5.50–10.49%, 3.74–8.55%, 1.80–5.94%
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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