Air Travel and Influenza Spread
Author Information
Author(s): Brownstein John S, Wolfe Cecily J, Mandl Kenneth D
Primary Institution: Children's Hospital Informatics Program at the Harvard–MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology
Hypothesis
Does airline travel influence the spread of influenza across regions in the United States?
Conclusion
Airline travel significantly affects the timing and rate of influenza spread in the US.
Supporting Evidence
- Domestic airline travel volume in November predicts the rate of influenza spread.
- International airline travel influences the timing of influenza mortality.
- The flight ban after September 11, 2001, delayed the influenza season.
- Influenza spread was slower during years with lower domestic air travel.
- Peak influenza mortality was delayed in years with lower international air travel.
Takeaway
When lots of people fly, the flu spreads faster. After 9/11, fewer flights meant the flu took longer to spread.
Methodology
Analyzed weekly mortality data from the CDC for nine influenza seasons and correlated it with airline travel data.
Potential Biases
Possible underreporting of deaths and variations in data quality across regions.
Limitations
Variability in reporting and potential inaccuracies in mortality data.
Participant Demographics
Data from multiple geographic regions in the United States.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.014
Confidence Interval
95% confidence interval: 9.1–52.4 d
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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