Estimating Uncertainty in National HIV Prevalence Estimates
Author Information
Author(s): Leontine Alkema, Adrian E. Raftery, Tim Brown
Primary Institution: University of Washington
Hypothesis
To construct confidence intervals for HIV prevalence in countries with generalized epidemics.
Conclusion
The Bayesian melding approach provides a way to assess uncertainty in HIV prevalence estimates and produces formal statistical confidence intervals.
Supporting Evidence
- Adult HIV prevalence in the Caribbean is estimated at 1.0% (95% CI 0.9% to 1.2%) in 2007.
- Based on antenatal clinic data, the posterior median of prevalence is 5.3% for 2007 (95% CI 4.3% to 6.7%).
- Median prevalence in Namibia is estimated at 16.9% (95% CI 13.2% to 22.1%) for 2007.
Takeaway
This study helps us understand how many people might have HIV in different countries by using a special method that combines data and expert opinions.
Methodology
The study used Bayesian melding to derive annual 95% confidence intervals for HIV prevalence based on antenatal clinic data and population-based surveys.
Potential Biases
There may be biases in antenatal clinic data compared to population estimates.
Limitations
The estimates are illustrative and may not include all available information.
Participant Demographics
The study focused on urban areas in Haiti and Namibia.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% CI
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Want to read the original?
Access the complete publication on the publisher's website