Updates to the BOADICEA Model for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk
Author Information
Author(s): Antoniou A C, Cunningham A P, Peto J, Evans D G, Lalloo F, Narod S A, Risch H A, Eyfjord J E, Hopper J L, Southey M C, Olsson H, Johannsson O, Borg A, Passini B, Radice P, Manoukian S, Eccles D M, Tang N, Olah E, Anton-Culver H, Warner E, Lubinski J, Gronwald J, Gorski B, Tryggvadottir L, Syrjakoski K, Kallioniemi O-P, Eerola H, Nevanlinna H, Pharoah P D P, Easton D F
Primary Institution: Cancer Research UK, Genetic Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Hypothesis
The BOADICEA model can be improved by incorporating additional family data and extending its scope to include risks of other cancers.
Conclusion
The updated BOADICEA model provides more accurate predictions of breast and ovarian cancer risks by using a larger dataset and accounting for additional cancer types.
Supporting Evidence
- Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers.
- The average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920–1929 and 58% for those born after 1950.
- The model predicts that breast cancer risks increase in more recent birth cohorts.
- BOADICEA can predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks for individuals with any family history.
Takeaway
This study improved a model that helps predict the risk of breast and ovarian cancer based on family history and genetic factors, making it more accurate.
Methodology
The study combined data from multiple population-based studies and used complex segregation analysis to fit the model.
Limitations
The original model had limitations in assuming fixed incidence rates and not accounting for the risk of multiple cancers.
Participant Demographics
The study included data from 2785 families, with specific focus on BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
Statistical Information
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 1.54–2.57
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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