Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations
2025

Food Trade and Climate Change Impacts

Sample size: 162 publication 20 minutes Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): Bajaj Kushank, Mehrabi Zia, Kastner Thomas, Jägermeyr Jonas, Müller Christoph, Schwarzmüller Florian, Hertel Thomas W., Ramankutty Navin

Primary Institution: University of British Columbia

Hypothesis

How does food trade influence the climate change impacts on national food supply?

Conclusion

Food trade can mitigate climate change impacts on food supply for lower-income countries while aggravating it for higher-income countries.

Supporting Evidence

  • Climate impacts on food supply are aggravated for high-income countries and mitigated for low-income countries.
  • Countries are reliant on a few mega-exporters who mediate climate impacts.
  • Managing climate change risks for food security requires a global perspective.

Takeaway

Countries that rely on food imports can sometimes get more food even when climate change is hurting crops, but this isn't true for everyone.

Methodology

The study used global crop modeling data and current trade flows to evaluate climate change impacts on national food supply.

Potential Biases

The study may not fully capture the complexities of global food systems and their interdependencies.

Limitations

The analysis is limited to three crops and does not account for market adaptations or trade-offs between efficiency and resilience.

Participant Demographics

The study includes data from 162 countries, representing diverse income levels.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pone.0314722

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