Modeling Responses to Smallpox as a Bioterrorist Weapon
Author Information
Author(s): Martin I. Meltzer, Inger Damon, James W. LeDuc, J. Donald Millar
Primary Institution: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Hypothesis
How can we calculate the number of doses of smallpox vaccine to be stockpiled and can quarantine contribute to control efforts?
Conclusion
A combination of vaccination and quarantine can effectively control a smallpox outbreak if implemented properly.
Supporting Evidence
- A quarantine-only program can stop an outbreak if at least 50% of symptomatic individuals are removed daily.
- Vaccination must reduce transmission to below 1.0 persons infected per infectious person to stop the outbreak.
- Combining vaccination with a 25% daily quarantine can reduce total cases significantly compared to quarantine alone.
Takeaway
If smallpox is released intentionally, we can stop it by quarantining sick people and vaccinating others, but we need to act quickly.
Methodology
A mathematical model was constructed to simulate the spread of smallpox and evaluate the effects of vaccination and quarantine.
Limitations
The model assumes an unlimited supply of susceptible persons and does not account for existing immunity or behavior changes.
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