Widespread Changes in Timing of Life Events in US Estuaries
Author Information
Author(s): Fournier Robert J., Colombano Denise D., Latour Robert J., Carlson Stephanie M., Ruhi Albert
Primary Institution: University of California Berkeley
Hypothesis
Phenological shifts would be common in all three systems, and shifts would predominantly involve an advancement of peak abundance dates.
Conclusion
Many taxa shifted their phenology towards earlier peaks, but many did not track changing environments, indicating a potential for disruption in estuarine food webs.
Supporting Evidence
- Phenological shifts occurred in over a quarter (28%) of the combined series across all three estuaries.
- 85% of taxa shifting their phenology due to temperature changes advanced their peak abundance.
- Taxa in San Francisco Bay frequently tracked changes in salinity more often than changes in temperature.
- Many taxa with shifting phenology did not track changing environments.
Takeaway
Climate change is making plants and animals in estuaries change when they do things, like grow or reproduce, which can cause problems if they don't do it at the same time as their food or predators.
Methodology
Analyzed over 2000 long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish abundance or biomass.
Potential Biases
Focus on high abundance taxa may overlook less common species.
Limitations
Monthly data may miss finer changes in species with rapid life cycles; models do not account for temporal autocorrelation.
Participant Demographics
Data from three major North American estuaries: San Francisco, Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.001
Confidence Interval
95%
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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