Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Airline Travel on Inter-Regional Influenza Spread in the United States
2006

Air Travel and the Spread of Influenza

publication Evidence: moderate

Author Information

Author(s): John S. Brownstein, Kenneth D. Mandl, Cecily J. Wolfe

Primary Institution: Children's Hospital Boston, Harvard–MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology

Hypothesis

Does airline travel affect the rate of epidemic influenza spread?

Conclusion

The study provides empirical evidence that airline travel significantly influences the spread of influenza in the United States.

Supporting Evidence

  • The study found a significant correlation between airline travel volume and the timing of influenza peaks.
  • Long-term data analysis showed trends toward earlier peaking and faster spreading influenza epidemics correlated with air travel.

Takeaway

Airplanes can help spread the flu between different places, and this study shows that more flights mean more flu cases.

Methodology

The study analyzed influenza data across nine seasons and correlated it with airline travel volume.

Potential Biases

Potential confounding factors were not fully controlled for, such as ground transportation.

Limitations

The findings may not apply to pandemic conditions and are influenced by other factors like population density and climate.

Statistical Information

P-Value

p<0.001

Confidence Interval

99%

Statistical Significance

p<0.001

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1371/journal.pmed.0030502

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