The global implications of a Russian gas pivot to Asia
Author Information
Author(s): Pye Steve, Bradshaw Michael, Price James, Zhang Dan, Kuzemko Caroline, Sharples Jack, Welsby Dan, Dodds Paul E.
Primary Institution: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, United Kingdom
Hypothesis
How does the geopolitical crisis impact the future of natural gas markets?
Conclusion
Russia struggles to regain pre-crisis gas export levels, with its success partly contingent on China's gas supply strategy.
Supporting Evidence
- Russia's gas exports are down by 31–47% in 2040 where new markets are limited.
- Under a pivot to Asia strategy, exports are down by 13–38%.
- China's energy security and climate objectives significantly influence Russia's gas export prospects.
Takeaway
This study looks at how Russia's war on Ukraine affects its ability to sell gas, especially to Europe and China. It finds that Russia will have a hard time selling as much gas as it used to.
Methodology
A scenario modelling approach is applied to explore the potential implications of the geopolitical crisis on natural gas markets.
Limitations
The study's projections are contingent on various geopolitical and market factors that may change over time.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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