Influence of Birth and Transmission Rates on Rotavirus Seasonality
Author Information
Author(s): Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Ben A. Lopman, Manish M. Patel, Umesh D. Parashar, Bryan T. Grenfell
Primary Institution: Princeton University
Hypothesis
Can dynamic resonance explain the geographical variation in rotavirus seasonality?
Conclusion
High birth and transmission rates in developing countries may explain the lack of rotavirus seasonality observed in these regions.
Supporting Evidence
- Model-predicted seasonal incidence patterns were significantly correlated with observed data (Spearman's ρ = 0.65).
- Vaccination may increase seasonal variation in rotavirus incidence in some settings.
- High birth rates in developing countries contribute to the lack of rotavirus seasonality.
Takeaway
This study looks at how the number of babies born and how fast rotavirus spreads can change when rotavirus gets more common in different places.
Methodology
Mathematical modeling of rotavirus transmission dynamics fitted to age distribution data from 15 countries.
Potential Biases
Potential biases in reporting rates and treatment-seeking behavior may affect the results.
Limitations
The study's estimates may be biased due to differences in surveillance methods and population demographics.
Participant Demographics
Data from children under 5 years of age from 15 countries across eight regions.
Statistical Information
P-Value
p<0.05
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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