Impact of Stopping Monitoring for Atypical Scrapie in Great Britain
Author Information
Author(s): Mark Arnold, Bryony Jones, Verity Horigan, Robin Simons, Brenda Rajanayagam
Primary Institution: Department of Epidemiological Sciences, Animal and Plant Health Agency, UK
Hypothesis
How many atypical scrapie cases would be missed if monitoring was stopped in positive flocks in Great Britain?
Conclusion
Stopping the intensive monitoring of atypical scrapie would have relatively little impact on surveillance and the ability to determine if the disease is contagious.
Supporting Evidence
- Only one undetected case of atypical scrapie is expected every three years if monitoring stops.
- Current monitoring detects around 10 cases of atypical scrapie per year through other methods.
- The study suggests that the costs of monitoring may outweigh the benefits in terms of disease detection.
Takeaway
The study looked at how many cases of a sheep disease called atypical scrapie might be missed if we stop checking sick sheep. It found that we would probably miss only one case every three years.
Methodology
The study used statistical and transmission modeling to estimate the number of atypical scrapie cases that would be missed if monitoring was stopped.
Potential Biases
There may be biases in the sampling of sheep for testing, which could affect the results.
Limitations
The study's estimates are based on the sensitivity of the diagnostic tests, which may not be accurate for atypical scrapie.
Participant Demographics
The study involved sheep from various farms in Great Britain.
Statistical Information
P-Value
0.34
Confidence Interval
95% CI: 0.18–0.54
Statistical Significance
p<0.05
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
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